Efficient markets and Bayes’ rule

Summary. A series of financial anomalies motivated the development of new theories that modify the rational expectations ideal. Two possibilities have been systematically explored. The literature on behavioral finance relaxes the assumption that agents form beliefs according to the laws of probability and assume, instead, that simpler heuristic rules are used. Another stream of the literature assumes that agents process information according to Bayes rule, but do not posses sufficient information to know the true data generating process. In this paper, Bayesian and Behavioral agents coexist and trade in a standard dynamic asset pricing model. A long-standing conjecture is demonstrated. It is shown that, under suitable assumptions, Bayesian agents drive Behavioral, non-Bayesian agents out of the market. Hence, asset prices are eventually determined under the Bayesian paradigm.Received: 3 June 2004, Revised: 17 September 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: D83.Preliminary versions have circulated under the titles Markets Favor Bayesian Models and Market Selection of Empirical Models under Limited Information. I thank Larry Blume, David Easley, Larry Epstein, Armando Gomes, Bruce Hansen, Lars Hansen, Richard Kihlstrom, Grace Koo, George Mailath, Werner Ploberger, Andrew Postlewaite and Shakeeb Khan for useful comments. I also thank participants at the NBER GE meetings, Evolutionary Finance conference in Zurich, Latin American Meetings of the Econometric Society, Stanford Institute for Theoretical Economics, the Instituto de Matematica Pura e Aplicada, the theory seminar at Brown, Chicago, Harvard-MIT, Minnesota, Penn and Wisconsin. I gratefully acknowledge the financial support from the National Science Foundation Grant SES 0109650.     

“法治湖南”建设中的检察职能思考

＂法治湖南＂建设已取得巨大成效,但仍存在民生工作基础薄弱、＂唯GDP论＂、社会管理工作机制建设滞后、司法队伍公正廉洁建设不足等诸多问题。检察工作在法治建设中具有化解矛盾、保障发展、监督权力等重要制度价值,＂法治湖南＂建设从强化自身监督、法律监督、社会矛盾化解与社会管理创新等重要领域对检察工作提出了新的需求。应围绕＂法治湖南＂对公平正义的需求强化法律监督职能,围绕＂法治湖南＂对和谐稳定的需求强化矛盾化解职能,围绕＂法治湖南＂对司法公信的需求强化执法规范职能,有效服务法治湖南建设大局发展。     

论电信业互联互通规制创新

互联互通是一个世界性的监管难题,但又是电信业改革的基础。如果没有互联互通,新兴的运营商就难以进入市场,电信业的竞争发展就无从谈起。从我国实际情况出发,有效成分定价原则和整体价格上限法的综合运用不但能提高企业效率,降低成本,促进行业竞争,而且能避免掠夺性定价行为,价格战等行为的发生,它是我国现阶段可以考虑的一种较优的接入定价选择。     

转型经济的货币深化与货币挤出:中国和俄罗斯的不同

通货膨胀是转型经济所要面临的挑战,因此分析转型经济的货币问题十分必要。通过构建货币深化和货币挤出两种不同货币现象的分析框架,并对中国和俄罗斯的现实情况进行比较,可以发现,货币超发并非通货膨胀的充分条件,只要能够控制好货币的流向,引导货币向货币资本转化,就能够防范和治理通货膨胀,以交易方程式和鲍莫尔—托宾模型的实证检验也印证了上述观点。     

维吾尔语宾语问题研究

"间接宾语"说是抛开维语的形态,强调意义的产物。抛开形态谈意义,必然会出现间接宾语和状语难以区分的问题,给语言研究、翻译和教学带来诸多不便。本文认为,只有带宾格标志的才是宾语,应把"间接宾语"归为状语,这是符合语法发展规律的。     

早期列宁建设法制国家的思想探索

俄国伟大的导师列宁提出了关于立法、执法、司法、守法和法律监督等一系列崭新理论,并在实践中逐步形成了建设法制国家的思想,极大地丰富了马克思主义法学宝库,对于我们今天实施＂依法治国,建设社会主义法治国家＂的治国方略,具有极为重要的启示和指导意义。     

Innovation, rule breaking and the ethics of entrepreneurship

This article examines a feature of the ethics of entrepreneurship that is infrequently directly discussed, viz., rule breaking. Entrepreneurs are widely said to engage in rule breaking. Many examples of this appear in popular and academic literature. But how may this be integrated into an account of the ethics of entrepreneurship? One response would be that when entrepreneurs break legal and moral rules then what they do is wrong and ought to be condemned. There is a great deal to be said for this rule model of entrepreneurial ethics. However, this view is also mistaken. Instead, this article defends a virtue-based account of the ethics of entrepreneurship in which certain instances of rule breaking, even if morally wrong, are nevertheless ethically acceptable and part of the creative destruction that entrepreneurs bring not only to the economy but also to morality.     

Land rights in postwar Liberia: The volatile part of the peace process

The end to the war in Liberia, along with quality leadership and a large UN presence has laid the foundation for a successful peace process. Now the delicate part of the process is underway—building viable, equitable, and durable social relations, institutions and legal constructs. A potentially volatile part of any postwar scenario is the inability of land rights institutions to perform in an effective, legitimate, equitable manner. Reform of land tenure via policies, laws, institutions, and capacity, needs to happen in a manner that is able to attend to both the land rights related causes of conflict, and the tangle of land problems brought on by the war itself. This article reports on the current situation in Liberia, and examines the primary set of land tenure problems in the country. The article concludes with a series of suggestions for dealing with the unique circumstances of postwar land tenure, and the Liberian case.     

论法治化财政

财政的法治化是公共财政建设的重要内容.本文讨论法治化财政的理想指标体系,并结合中国现实,对中国财政的法治化进程进行定性评价.理想的财政法治化指标体系至少应涵括六个方面的内容:财政的民主立法、财政的法律至上、财政法律体系的完备(健全性)、财政的权利保障度、财政的司法公正、财政行政行为的受约束程度.中国财政立法奉行了民主立法原则,但民主立法进程仍需进一步加快;财政行为的法律至上度有待进一步提高;财政法律体系虽已覆盖财政各领域,但立法层次低,立法质量不高,法律体系尚不够完备;财政的权利保障度和财政司法的公正性正在得到逐步改善;财政行政行为已经有了各种各样的法律约束,但是财政法律体系的不健全从根本上影响了约束程度.     

Does the strength of the legal systems matter for trade in insurance and financial services?

This paper investigates if the strength of the legal system impacts on the trade in insurance and financial services in the high-income OECD and developing countries. Our findings reveal a statistically significant positive correlation of rule of law and regulatory quality with the exports and imports of insurance and financial services. Our empirical findings also reveal a negative and statistically significant correlation of contract enforcement with the exports and imports of insurance and financial services. We conclude that strengthening the rule of law and contract enforcement mechanisms can facilitate higher levels of trade in insurance and financial services.